达里奥重磅警告：美债务危机正走向“死亡螺旋”，长期风险极高！

Core Viewpoint - Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warns in his new book that while the short-term risk of a U.S. debt crisis is low, the long-term risk is very high, with the U.S. government debt situation approaching an "irretrievable" state that threatens economic stability [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Debt Situation - Dalio describes the U.S. government's debt as being on a path towards a "death spiral," where increasing deficits require more bond issuance, leading to higher interest payments and reduced demand for debt [1]. - He emphasizes that higher borrowing costs for the government will result in less funding available for governance, ultimately raising rates for consumers and businesses [2]. - Dalio believes that policymakers should adopt a more conservative approach to fiscal issues to avoid worsening the government's financial condition during difficult times [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Concerns - The bond market has shown volatility due to President Trump's tax and tariff agenda, raising concerns among investors about the sustainability of the U.S. deficit [2][3]. - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, has indicated that the bond market is on the verge of a "crack," while Barclays analysts note that long-term bond yields are nearing their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis [3]. - Dalio warns that the massive government debt could crowd out essential services, leading to a hollow economy that fails to serve its citizens, which is causing unease among global investors [3]. Group 3: Political Landscape - Dalio criticizes both Democrats and Republicans for their inability to work together on fiscal issues, likening the situation to a ship heading towards rocks without a consensus on how to change course [5].