Core Viewpoint - The acrylic industry in China is transitioning to a weak balance phase after significant adjustments in supply and demand, with production expected to rise from 580,000 tons in 2019 to 620,000 tons by 2024, while demand slightly decreases from 643,000 tons to 619,300 tons during the same period, indicating a narrowing supply-demand gap and deepening domestic substitution process [1][10]. Industry Development Overview - Acrylic, also known as polyacrylonitrile, is a high molecular compound primarily used to produce acrylic fibers, which are known for their good weather resistance and vibrant dyeing capabilities, but have limitations in moisture absorption and wear resistance [2]. Policy Background - The acrylic industry is influenced by dual policies focusing on environmental governance and industrial upgrading, with the Ministry of Ecology and Environment emphasizing pollution control in the chemical fiber sector and promoting energy efficiency improvements [5][6]. Industry Chain - The acrylic industry chain relies on acrylonitrile as a core raw material produced by petrochemical companies, with vertical integration accelerating as leading companies establish their own acrylonitrile facilities to enhance cost control and extend into high-value areas like carbon fiber [8]. Current Industry Status - China produces over 30% of the world's acrylic fabrics and garments, with a significant shift in supply-demand dynamics leading to a narrowing gap by 2024, driven by capacity clearance and technological upgrades [10]. Trade Dynamics - The import-export landscape of the acrylic industry shows a reduction in imports from 89,000 tons to 44,400 tons and an increase in exports from 26,000 tons to 45,100 tons from 2019 to 2024, indicating enhanced international competitiveness of domestic acrylic products [12]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape features a concentration of leading firms like Jilin Chemical Fiber, which has achieved a compound annual growth rate of 9.6% in revenue from 2020 to 2024, while international giants are also investing in high-end material development [14][16]. Development Trends - The acrylic industry is expected to accelerate the integration of green low-carbon technologies, aiming for a 30% reduction in carbon footprint through innovations in raw materials and recycling systems, while also developing high-performance differentiated products for emerging markets [18].
2025年中国腈纶供需及进出口现状简析,国产替代进程深化,净出口实现逆转[图]