PVC：供需矛盾难有效缓解 6月关注印度BIS政策变化

Group 1 - The domestic PVC powder market is experiencing a slight downward adjustment in spot prices, with overall trading activity remaining subdued due to low downstream purchasing enthusiasm [1] - As of May 29, the overall operating rate for PVC powder is 74.60%, an increase of 1.49 percentage points month-on-month, with the calcium carbide method at 75.71% and the ethylene method at 71.71% [2] - Social inventory of PVC has decreased by 4.12% month-on-month to 597,600 tons, a year-on-year decline of 32.78%, with East China holding 544,700 tons and South China 52,900 tons [2] Group 2 - The long-term outlook for PVC indicates a prominent supply-demand imbalance, primarily due to a declining trend in the domestic real estate sector, which negatively impacts end demand [3] - Short-term supply pressures are expected to increase in June due to planned maintenance and new installations coming online, while domestic demand remains weak [3] - Overall, the supply-demand pressure may marginally increase in June, with PVC prices expected to operate within the range of 4,500 to 5,000, although current absolute prices are considered low [3]