铁矿石：铁水高位回落 关注终端需求边际变化

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a decline in demand and prices, influenced by seasonal factors and supply increases, with expectations of price fluctuations within the range of 700-745 RMB per ton [6]. Supply - Global iron ore shipments have increased by 242.3 million tons to 34.31 million tons this week, with Australian and Brazilian shipments showing mixed trends [4]. - Australian shipments totaled 19.205 million tons, a decrease of 0.927 million tons, while shipments to China fell by 2.814 million tons to 14.998 million tons [4]. - Brazilian shipments rose by 1.715 million tons to 9.483 million tons, indicating a recovery in some ports [4]. Demand - Daily molten iron production averaged 2.4191 million tons, a decrease of 16,900 tons from the previous period [3]. - The blast furnace operating rate is at 83.87%, up by 0.18%, while the capacity utilization rate is at 90.69%, down by 0.64 percentage points [3]. - Steel mill profitability stands at 58.87%, a slight decrease of 0.87 percentage points [3]. Inventory - As of May 29, total inventory at 45 ports is 138.6658 million tons, down by 1.2125 million tons [5]. - Steel mills' imported ore inventory decreased by 1.7115 million tons to 87.5433 million tons, with a slight decline in daily consumption [5]. Market Outlook - The iron ore market is facing downward pressure due to high inventory levels and increased supply, while demand remains resilient despite seasonal weaknesses [6]. - The expectation is for limited declines in molten iron production, with a focus on changes in production levels [6]. - The upcoming peak in shipments from overseas mines may lead to increased supply pressure in the market [6].