国泰海通互联网应用2025年中期策略：消费周期与AI叙事下的中国互联网投资新范式

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan expresses optimism for the Hang Seng Technology Index in the second half of the year, driven by domestic policy support and improving capital conditions in Hong Kong, despite uncertainties in US-China trade negotiations [1] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on two main lines of investment: 1. Alibaba-W (09988) and Kuaishou-W (01024) due to their upward trends in fundamentals and benefits from AI-related products [2] 2. Meituan-W (03690), Pinduoduo (PDD.US), and JD Group-SW (09618) for their solid long-term business models and expansion into new growth areas [3] Company-Specific Insights - Alibaba-W: Anticipated continued growth in its cloud business and e-commerce, with a projected 12% year-on-year increase in CMR for Q4 FY25 [2] - Kuaishou-W: Expected improvement in e-commerce business due to strategic adjustments by Douyin, with significant potential from the updated Keta 2.0 version [2] - Meituan-W: Short-term investments are aimed at solidifying market share, with long-term competitive advantages expected to be maintained through network effects in the food delivery sector [3] - Pinduoduo: Focus on ecosystem development may pressure short-term profits, but long-term prospects remain strong with anticipated recovery in profitability in the second half of the year [3] - JD Group-SW: Q1 FY25 revenue exceeded expectations, driven by user growth and strong performance in the food delivery segment [3]