AI开启欧洲耗电新拐点 公用事业巨头们迎“估值扩张”浪潮

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs highlights that undervalued utility giants in Europe focusing on electricity supply and water resources will significantly benefit from the unprecedented global AI boom and the ongoing trend of electrification [1][4] - The report indicates that European electricity demand has faced a cumulative decline of approximately 10% since 2008 due to external shocks and a slower-than-expected electrification process, but is expected to increase by 40%-50% over the next decade [1][4] Company Analysis: Centrica - Centrica has identified a potential EBITDA of £1.6 billion by FY2028, with £400 million expected from its £4 billion investment plan, of which about 50% remains uncommitted [1][2] - The investment details regarding nuclear power are anticipated to be disclosed during a spending review on June 11, 2025, with a potential £2 billion equity investment offering approximately 6% upside to current share prices and a 3% increase in EPS by 2028 [2] - Centrica's core business encompasses retail gas and electricity, upstream oil and gas, flexible peaking plants, and storage, with a focus on green assets such as nuclear, hydrogen, and carbon capture [3] Industry Trends: AI and Electricity Demand - The demand for electricity from AI data centers is expected to surge, with global data center electricity demand projected to double by 2030, reaching approximately 945 TWh, driven primarily by AI applications [4][5] - In the U.S., data centers' share of electricity consumption is forecasted to increase twofold from 126 TWh in 2022 to 390 TWh by 2030 [5] - The PJM Interconnection anticipates a summer peak electricity demand increase of nearly 58 GW (approximately 38%) by 2035, attributed to the growth in AI [6] Company Performance: Vistra Energy - Vistra Corp. is projected to be one of the best-performing stocks in the S&P 500 for 2024, with a remarkable increase of 256%, surpassing even Nvidia's 170% rise [6][7] - Vistra and Constellation Energy are experiencing significant growth due to their independent power producer status, allowing them to sell electricity at market prices [7] Water Resource Utilities: Pennon Group - Pennon Group reported a core EBITDA of £335.6 million for FY2025, with a net debt of £4.1 billion, slightly above market expectations [8][9] - The company benefits indirectly from the massive water demand of data centers, which require significant amounts of water for cooling and other operational needs [9]