美国经济展现“抗关税”韧性 非农前夕市场波澜不惊

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the S&P 500 index is expected to experience minimal volatility following the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, reflecting improved investor sentiment due to recent positive economic data [1] - The implied volatility for the S&P 500 index is projected at ±0.9%, the lowest since February, and significantly below the average actual volatility of 1.3% over the past year [1] - Following initial fears regarding the impact of tariffs on the economy, the market has rebounded as the Trump administration has eased some tariff measures, leading to a 2.8% decline from the index's all-time high earlier this year [1] Group 2 - Economists surveyed predict that the U.S. will add approximately 130,000 jobs in May, a decrease from 177,000 in the previous month, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2% [3] - Trader positions reflect optimism regarding the non-farm data, with hedge funds turning net short on CBOE volatility index futures after the S&P 500's best monthly performance since 1990 [4] - The Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index has turned positive for the first time since the S&P 500's record high in February, indicating stronger economic data [4] Group 3 - A report from JPMorgan suggests that if May's job additions fall below 100,000, the S&P 500 could face a 3% decline, although this scenario has a low probability of about 5% [5] - The baseline scenario estimates job additions between 115,000 and 135,000, which could lead to a 0.25% to 1% increase in the index [5] - The upcoming employment data will provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve's policy direction amid challenges such as trade uncertainties and potential inflation [7] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is attempting to balance policy rate adjustments in light of trade war uncertainties and economic slowdown, with the FOMC entering a quiet period ahead of the June 18 rate decision [7] - Market sentiment may remain tolerant even if job growth slows, as employment data is considered lagging and the real impact of tariff policies on the job market may take months to manifest [7]