【财经分析】窄幅震荡无碍机构看多 6月债市仍可布局

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing low-level fluctuations in interest rates due to mixed signals from various news and events, with analysts optimistic about potential further declines in yields in June [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Since May, the bond market has been influenced by a combination of factors, including uncertainty from tariff negotiations and a supportive stance from management regarding liquidity [1] - Historical data shows that in the past nine years, interest rates in June have declined in six of those years, indicating a trend that may continue this year [2] - The average and volatility of DR007 have decreased from 2.11% and 0.44% in Q1 to 1.71% and 0.10% in Q2, reflecting a more accommodating monetary policy [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of government bonds is expected to be manageable, with a projected net issuance of approximately 7.2 trillion yuan from June to December, which is lower than the same period last year [4] - Market sentiment has shifted from a "bullish but inactive" stance to a more active "buy on dips" approach, with over half of the sell-side still optimistic about the bond market [5] - The current market conditions are seen as presenting more opportunities than risks, especially after the seasonal liquidity pressures subside [6] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Weak domestic demand is indicated by a decline in prices of domestically priced goods and a drop in the construction PMI, which fell by 0.9 percentage points to 51% [4] - The manufacturing PMI has remained below the growth line for two consecutive months, suggesting increased pressure on the economy [4] - Analysts expect macroeconomic data to peak in June and then likely decline, which would be favorable for bond market performance [4]