李在明上台，韩国转机将至？

Economic Overview - South Korea's new president, Lee Jae-myung, has pledged to initiate an emergency economic task force to achieve a virtuous economic cycle through national finances [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May was reported at 116.27, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, which is below the Bank of Korea's 2% inflation target [1][3] - The economic outlook is grim, with many financial institutions lowering their growth forecasts for South Korea due to ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. [1][5] Inflation and Price Trends - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.0% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, indicating persistent inflation in personal services [3] - Prices for petroleum products fell by 2.3% year-on-year, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 3.5% and 5.5%, respectively [3] - Agricultural and livestock prices saw a slight increase of 0.1%, while the fresh food index dropped by 5.0% year-on-year [3] Government Response and Fiscal Policy - The South Korean government approved a supplementary budget of 13.8 trillion KRW (approximately 725.7 million RMB) to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs and stabilize prices [4] - The Bank of Korea has revised its economic growth forecast for the year down to 0.8%, significantly lower than previous estimates [4][5] - The new administration is expected to implement fiscal stimulus measures to support strategic industries and enhance the stock market [9] Trade Relations and External Pressures - The U.S. has increased tariffs on steel and aluminum, which poses a significant challenge for South Korea's export-driven economy [8] - South Korea is the fourth-largest steel exporter to the U.S., accounting for 13.1% of U.S. steel imports, and is facing increased export pressure due to the tariff hikes [8] - The ongoing trade negotiations with the U.S. are seen as critical for the new government's success [7][9] Market Reactions - Following the announcement of the new government, the yield on South Korea's 10-year government bonds rose by over 10 basis points to 2.90% [9][10] - Analysts predict that bond issuance may exceed initial plans, with estimates suggesting issuance could reach 230 trillion KRW in 2025 [9] - The Bank of Korea has lowered the benchmark interest rate from 2.75% to 2.5%, with expectations of further reductions by year-end [10]