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Golub Capital BDC's NAV, Valuation, And Dividend Versus 11 BDC Peers - Part 1 (Includes Recommendations As Of 5/30/2025)
BDCBelden(BDC) Seeking Alpha· Seeking Alpha·2025-06-04 19:29

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes Golub Capital BDC Inc.'s (NASDAQ:GBDC) recent performance metrics and compares them with 11 business development company (BDC) peers, highlighting GBDC's strengths and weaknesses in terms of net asset value (NAV), economic return, and investment portfolio composition [1][2][25]. Summary by Relevant Sections NAV and Economic Return Analysis - GBDC's NAV per share decreased from 15.13attheendofQ42024to15.13 at the end of Q4 2024 to 15.04 at the end of Q1 2025, reflecting a quarterly decrease of 0.59% [11]. - The economic return for GBDC in Q1 2025 was 1.98%, with a trailing 12-month economic return of 11.77%, which is above the average of its peers [11][25]. - As of May 30, 2025, GBDC's stock price was 15.21,tradingatapremiumof1.7415.21, trading at a premium of 1.74% to its estimated NAV of 14.95 [24]. Investment Portfolio Composition - As of March 31, 2025, GBDC's investment portfolio consisted of 92% in senior secured first-lien loans, with less than 1% in subordinated debt and 7% in equity/warrants [15][17]. - GBDC's fair market value (FMV) versus cost ratio was 0.9941, slightly below the peer average of 1.0106, indicating a minor negative trend [17]. - The company had a low non-accrual percentage of 1.2% based on amortized cost, which is below the peer average of 3.5%, suggesting better credit quality [18]. Performance Metrics Comparison - GBDC's cumulative realized loss per share was (0.44),whichismorefavorablecomparedtothepeeraveragelossof(0.44), which is more favorable compared to the peer average loss of (0.82), indicating stronger long-term performance [19]. - The adjusted net investment income (NII) for GBDC was 0.388pershareinQ12025,withaprice−to−annualizedNIIratioof9.80x,slightlybelowthepeeraverageof10.01x[21][24].−DuringQ12025,6.880.388 per share in Q1 2025, with a price-to-annualized NII ratio of 9.80x, slightly below the peer average of 10.01x [21][24]. - During Q1 2025, 6.88% of GBDC's total investment income was attributed to capitalized PIK/deferred interest income, aligning with the peer average of 6.87% [22]. Management and Fee Structure - GBDC recently reduced management fees from 1.375% to 1.00%, the lowest among its externally managed peers, which is expected to benefit shareholders [27]. - The cap on income incentive fees was lowered from 20% to 15%, further enhancing the company's attractiveness to investors [27]. Overall Valuation and Recommendations - GBDC is currently deemed appropriately valued, with a price target of approximately 16.05 per share, indicating a HOLD recommendation [34]. - The company is positioned to weather potential economic downturns better than many peers, supported by its low exposure to high-risk sectors like oil and gas [31][20].