news flash·2025-06-05 00:32Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities predicts that the US manufacturing PMI may continue to fluctuate below the growth line by mid-year, reflecting a broader trend in global manufacturing dynamics [1] Group 1: Global Manufacturing PMI Trends - In May 2025, the global manufacturing PMI index exhibited characteristics of "China's stability, emerging market divergence, European stabilization, and US decline" [1] - The easing of tariffs has provided a short-term boost to exports, but negative expectations for overseas markets are gradually becoming evident [1] Group 2: Regional Manufacturing PMI Insights - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI showed little change, indicating signs of temporary stabilization [1] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index recorded 48.5 in May, characterized by "weak supply and demand, persistent inflation, a cooling job market, and a significant decline in foreign trade" [1] Group 3: Economic Impact and Forecast - The overall impact of tariff disruptions on the US and global macroeconomy is beginning to manifest, with expectations of a slight decline in US economic readings [1] - CITIC Securities anticipates that the US manufacturing PMI will likely remain below the growth line through mid-year [1]