超5000人爆满！国泰海通，首场中期策略会来了！

Core Viewpoint - Guotai Haitong Securities is optimistic about China's "transformation bull market," with a strategic outlook favoring 2025 as the market evolves towards new opportunities in emerging technologies and cyclical finance [1][5]. Macro Perspective - Guotai Haitong Securities anticipates that macro policies may continue to marginally increase, especially after July, with a potential for comprehensive interest rate cuts in the second half of the year [2][3]. Market Strategy - The firm believes that the "transformation bull market" in the Chinese stock market is becoming increasingly clear, driven by improved investor understanding of economic conditions and a shift in the main concerns from economic cycles to declining discount rates [5]. - Investment opportunities are identified in emerging technologies as the main focus, with cyclical finance seen as a dark horse [5]. Investment Opportunities - Key areas of investment include: - Financials and high-dividend stocks, focusing on brokers, banks, and insurance companies, as well as companies with stable dividend yields and monopolistic advantages [5]. - Emerging technology sectors, particularly in internet, media, gaming, robotics, pharmaceuticals, and military industries [5][6]. - Revitalization of cyclical consumption, with attention to tight supply-demand dynamics in materials like rare earths and chemicals, as well as new consumer demands in retail and cosmetics [5]. Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to trend upwards in the second half of the year, driven by strong performance in the technology sector, particularly due to AI-driven growth [8]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index is highlighted as a key area of focus, with expectations of improved return on equity (ROE) and valuation uplift [8]. Convertible Bonds Market - The convertible bond market may experience a bull market due to supply-demand mismatches, with low interest rates driving demand for attractive investment options [10]. - Historical trends suggest that as risk appetite increases, the market may see a gradual upward trajectory in convertible bonds over the coming years [10].