Overall Economic Activity - Economic activity in the U.S. is generally experiencing a slight to moderate decline, with half of the regions reporting a downturn, while three regions are stable and three show slight growth [2][3] - Manufacturing activity is broadly contracting, and consumer spending is mixed, with retail and dining sectors showing weakness, although some categories like automobiles are seeing increased demand due to tariff expectations [2][3] - The housing market is sluggish, with new home construction slowing down and existing home sales remaining flat, while inventory pressures are rising [2][3] Labor Market - Employment conditions are relatively stable, with most regions reporting flat employment rates, although some sectors like manufacturing and construction are seeing layoffs or hiring freezes [4] - Wage growth is moderate, with over 70% of businesses adopting a cautious approach to future hiring, and many have prepared for potential layoffs [4][11] - Job openings have unexpectedly increased, but the number of voluntary resignations has dropped significantly, indicating weakened confidence in the job market [11][12] Inflation and Pricing - Prices have been rising at a moderate pace, with tariffs exerting upward pressure on costs and prices, leading manufacturers to raise prices or reduce profits [5][6] - The real estate market remains stable, but new construction activities are either flat or slowing down due to uncertainty and high costs [6] - Service industries are facing limitations in pricing power, with some businesses delaying price adjustments to maintain demand [5][6] Regional Economic Highlights - Boston reports slight declines in consumption and housing prices, with businesses delaying hiring due to tariffs [7] - Atlanta sees growth in the energy sector, particularly LNG exports, while manufacturing is noticeably declining [8] - San Francisco's technology and financial services remain stable, but retail is shrinking, and the agricultural and real estate markets are softening [9] Policy and Economic Outlook - The intertwining of tariff disputes and interest rate cut expectations is creating a dual challenge for the U.S. economy, with markets anticipating at least two rate cuts within the year [14][15] - Recent data has led to increased speculation about the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, with a significant probability now assigned to cuts occurring in September or earlier [14] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and geopolitical risks continues to weigh on economic outlooks, with many regions maintaining a cautious stance [9][10]
关税阴云笼罩美国：经济活动普遍降温 通胀压力持续攀升
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-06-05 05:03