Group 1 - The core concern regarding a potential "debt crisis" in June 2025 has been largely misinterpreted, with analysts clarifying that the actual maturity of U.S. Treasury bonds is not as alarming as reported [1][3][4] - The total amount of U.S. Treasury bonds maturing in 2025 is approximately $10.8 trillion, which is similar to the $10.6 trillion maturing in 2024, indicating no explosive growth [1][3][4] - In June 2025, the total maturing bonds are estimated at $1.45 trillion, with short-term bonds making up $1.27 trillion, and the realistic estimate for June's maturity is around $2.4 trillion, primarily involving refinancing [1][4] Group 2 - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has warned that if the debt ceiling is not raised or suspended, the federal government may face a cash shortfall as early as August, risking a debt default [2][5] - Historical experiences show that political standoffs over the debt ceiling can lead to significant market volatility, as seen in 2011 and 2013 [5][6] - The CBO predicts that the government's borrowing capacity may be exhausted by August or September 2025, which could lead to delayed payments or defaults if the debt ceiling is not addressed [5][6] Group 3 - Despite the alleviation of immediate concerns regarding June's bond maturities, the real pressure on the U.S. Treasury market may arise during the third quarter due to ongoing debt ceiling negotiations [4][5] - The Federal Reserve has noted that volatility in the bond market could pose risks to financial stability, especially if the status of the dollar as a safe haven changes [7] - There is a noticeable decline in foreign official holdings of U.S. Treasuries, dropping from 45% in 2014 to 28% in 2023, indicating a shift in the global monetary system [7]
6月究竟有多少美债到期？拆解天量美债，真正“大考”或在三季度
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-06-05 05:47