瑞郎对美元年内涨逾10%，是否出手干预？瑞士央行陷入两难

Core Viewpoint - The significant appreciation of the Swiss Franc is creating deflationary pressures in Switzerland, complicating the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) ability to intervene due to the current U.S. administration's stance [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The Swiss Franc has appreciated over 10% against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year, driven by global market volatility and a flight to safety [3][4]. - The strong Swiss Franc has led to a decrease in import prices, contributing to a 2.4% year-on-year decline in import prices and a 0.1% decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May, marking Switzerland's first return to deflation since the pandemic [3][4]. Group 2: Central Bank Response - The SNB may be forced to consider reintroducing negative interest rates as a response to the strong Swiss Franc, which could further lower the key interest rate by 25 basis points to -0.25% by the end of the year [5][6]. - The SNB ended its seven-year negative interest rate policy in 2022, but the current economic conditions may necessitate a reconsideration of this stance [5][6]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Intervention Challenges - The SNB's ability to intervene in the foreign exchange market is complicated by the U.S. government's potential response, as any direct intervention could lead to accusations of currency manipulation, reminiscent of the 2020 designation by the U.S. Treasury [6][7]. - The current geopolitical climate and the U.S. administration's trade policies make it difficult for the SNB to utilize foreign exchange interventions without facing significant repercussions [6][7].