供需面结构中性偏弱 铁矿石期货后期震荡偏弱看待

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for black metals is experiencing a significant decline, with iron ore futures showing a downward trend and a current price fluctuation between 695.0 and 708.5 CNY/ton, reflecting a drop of approximately 0.50% [1] - According to Guotai Junan Futures, the basic supply and demand dynamics indicate a continued weakening in iron ore demand, with a decrease in iron water production and an increase in domestic iron ore output expected in June, leading to a bearish price outlook [1] - Zhonghui Futures notes that while iron water production is declining, steel mills' profits are still supporting high iron ore demand, but the overall supply-demand structure is neutral to weak, indicating potential pressure on the industrial fundamentals [1] Group 2 - Shenyin Wanguo Futures highlights that despite a decline in iron water production, the speed and extent of this decline are limited due to reasonable profit margins for steel mills, suggesting continued support for iron ore demand [2] - The global iron ore shipments have recently decreased, primarily due to disruptions in Australian shipments, while port inventory is being depleted rapidly, indicating a potential imbalance in supply and demand in the medium term [2] - The outlook for iron ore shipments in the second half of the year is expected to increase significantly, with a focus on monitoring the production progress of steel mills and the ongoing situation regarding steel billet exports [2]