关税冲击经济前景 欧洲央行今晚降息几成定局

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2% during its upcoming meeting, marking the eighth rate cut in this cycle due to the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on global trade and economic outlook [1][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The ECB is anticipated to announce a rate cut on Thursday, with further cuts expected in September as the impact of tariffs becomes clearer [1]. - ECB policymakers, both hawks and doves, indicate that they have nearly completed the process of lowering borrowing costs, with discussions about slowing the pace of easing [5]. - Economists predict a pause in rate cuts next month, but caution that prolonged inaction could lead markets to believe the ECB has halted rate reductions entirely [7]. Group 2: Economic Forecasts - Analysts expect the ECB to maintain its previous economic forecasts despite significant changes in the global trade landscape [8]. - The euro has strengthened significantly since March, and lower energy prices are exerting downward pressure on prices, providing relief to businesses affected by weak demand [8]. - The ECB is preparing various scenario forecasts to better understand potential future developments, with the likelihood of the baseline forecast being less than 50% [10]. Group 3: Political and Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming meetings between U.S. and EU officials, including discussions on defense spending and tariffs, are critical for the economic outlook of the eurozone [11]. - The potential for increased defense spending to 5% of GDP, as requested by the U.S., could significantly impact the eurozone economy [11]. - The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of trade negotiations and the ability of governments to implement large-scale defense and infrastructure plans adds to the unpredictability of the economic environment [10].