Bear of the Day: American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)

Company Overview - American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) is a specialty casual apparel retailer based in Pittsburgh, targeting individuals aged 15 to 25 with a range of clothing and accessories [1][9] - The company operates three main brands: AE Brand, Aerie by American Eagle, and AEO Direct, which includes both physical stores and e-commerce platforms [2][3] Industry Challenges - The number of malls in the US has significantly decreased from over 2,000 in the 1980s to approximately 700 today, with a notable decline in foot traffic exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic and a shift towards online shopping [4] - AEO's reliance on brick-and-mortar stores, which account for about two-thirds of its revenue, poses a vulnerability in the current retail landscape [4][9] Financial Performance - AEO shares have underperformed, down nearly 40% year-to-date compared to a flat S&P 500 [6] - Analysts predict negative earnings per share (EPS) growth for AEO, with a projected 52% decline in EPS next year [11] - The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for AEO's EPS shows a year-over-year decline of 46.15% for the current quarter and 52.30% for the current year [11] Competitive Landscape - AEO faces stiff competition, with rivals like Abercrombie & Fitch expecting a 70% increase in EPS for 2025, contrasting AEO's anticipated 14% growth [10] External Factors - Tariffs on goods sourced from countries such as China and Vietnam negatively impact AEO's business operations [5][9]