TrendForce集邦咨询：需求升温促使2Q25 Server与PC DDR4模组合约价涨幅扩大

Core Insights - TrendForce's latest survey indicates that the prices of Server and PC DDR4 modules are expected to rise in Q2 due to major DRAM suppliers reducing production and buyers stockpiling in advance, with price increases projected to exceed previous expectations [1][4]. Price Forecast - For Q2 2025, PC DDR4 prices are expected to increase by 13-18%, while Server DDR4 prices are projected to rise by 18-23%. In Q3 2025, PC DDR4 prices are forecasted to increase by 18-23%, and Server DDR4 prices are expected to rise by 8-13% [2]. Market Dynamics - The lifecycle of DDR4 has surpassed 10 years, with demand gradually shifting towards DDR5. Major suppliers plan to cease DDR4 production by early 2026, focusing on higher-margin products like HBM and DDR5. However, DDR4 will continue to be supplied for consumer DRAM due to ongoing demand [4]. Demand Drivers - The demand for General Server construction from cloud service providers (CSPs) remains robust, with increased storage server demand driven by AI applications. CSPs are also stockpiling in response to suppliers' end-of-life strategies, leading to an upward revision of Server DDR4 price increases from an initial estimate of 5-10% to 18-23% [4][5]. Supply Chain Adjustments - Recent international developments have prompted PC OEMs to request ODMs to increase production and expedite shipments to the U.S. market to mitigate uncertainties. The tightening supply-demand balance for Server DDR4 has led to a price increase for PC DDR4 due to supply constraints [5]. Future Outlook - The pricing trend for DDR4 contracts in Q3 will be influenced by supplier production strategies and tariff policies. There is potential for price increases to exceed expectations due to anticipated stockpiling demands as suppliers reduce output [5].