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老铺黄金、毛戈平估值远超A股“同行”,港股“新新消费”何以高溢价?
Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-06-05 09:05

Core Viewpoint - The recent pullback of Hong Kong's "new consumption forces" follows a period of exuberance, driven by profit-taking ahead of the "6.18" shopping festival, a wave of stock unlocks, and valuation discrepancies that have raised market caution [2][4][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 5, notable consumer stocks such as Lao Pu Gold, Mixue Ice City, and Pop Mart experienced significant declines, with Lao Pu Gold dropping over 9%, Mixue Group down over 7.7%, and Mao Ge Ping down over 6.6% [3]. - Despite the pullback, the valuations of these "new consumption stocks" remain significantly higher than their A-share counterparts, with Lao Pu Gold's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio reaching 107.9 times, far exceeding A-share competitors [2][9]. - As of June 4, Lao Pu Gold's market capitalization was HKD 171.6 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 315%, while Pop Mart and Mixue Group saw increases of 175.53% and 112.24%, respectively [3][9]. Group 2: Valuation Discrepancies - The high valuations of Hong Kong's "new consumption forces" are attributed to several factors, including concentrated shareholding, which creates a natural "scarcity effect" [14][15]. - Lao Pu Gold's major shareholders control 92.99% of the company's shares, while Mixue Group's founders hold over 80% [15]. - The valuation premium for these companies is also supported by their strong performance in the young consumer market, focusing on emotional value and innovative marketing strategies [15][16]. Group 3: Future Implications - Analysts suggest that the performance of Hong Kong's new consumption leaders could influence A-share markets, with the potential for a ripple effect in consumer sectors [12][17]. - The ongoing valuation recovery in Hong Kong, with the Hang Seng Technology Index's P/E ratio at approximately 20.17 times, indicates a trend of re-evaluation of assets [16]. - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong is seen as a potential leader, with the possibility of expanding into A-share markets, although the sustainability of this trend remains uncertain [17].