双焦期货反弹 供需形势是否好转？

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in coking coal and coke futures is seen as a potential signal of market improvement, although the underlying fundamentals remain weak [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 4, coking coal futures surged by 7.19%, marking the largest single-day increase since September 30, 2024, while coke futures rose by 5.72% [1]. - The recent price increases are attributed to oversold conditions and policy expectations, with coking coal futures having dropped 57.19% since their peak in October of the previous year [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current market conditions indicate that approximately 50% of coal mines are facing losses due to the low futures prices, which may lead to production cuts or shutdowns, thereby reducing marginal supply [1]. - Despite the recent price increases, the actual demand remains weak, with steel mills continuing to lower coke prices and high inventory levels of coking coal at production sites [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Impact - The new Mineral Resources Law, effective July 1, is expected to increase environmental costs and tighten capacity approvals, potentially improving the coal market outlook [1]. - However, the actual impact of the law on coal mining operations and costs will need to be monitored post-implementation [1].