溜溜梅冲刺港股IPO：明星光环褪色，青梅赛道增长隐忧浮现

Core Viewpoint - Liu Liu Mei, a leading Chinese green plum snack brand, is attempting to go public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to alleviate cash flow pressures, following a failed A-share IPO attempt in 2019, raising discussions about its business model [1] Group 1: Marketing Strategy - Liu Liu Mei gained fame through celebrity endorsement strategies, with sales increasing by 316% over three years due to Yang Mi's endorsement and the "Are you okay?" advertising slogan [2] - In 2024, advertising expenses are projected to reach 106 million yuan, accounting for 72% of net profit, with a sales expense ratio of 19.2%, significantly higher than industry averages [2] - The effectiveness of celebrity marketing is declining, as evidenced by backlash from fans during a live broadcast, highlighting the fragility of traffic dividends [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Liu Liu Mei holds the largest market share in the green plum snack sector, with a 7% market share in 2024, but faces declining prices for core products: dried plums down 10.7% and frozen plums down 27.9% year-on-year [3] - The green plum and western plum snacks combined account for only 1.3% of the 933 billion yuan leisure food industry, with significant competition from giants like Three Squirrels and Good Products Store, which are engaging in price wars and innovative marketing strategies [3] - In 2024, raw material prices for green plums increased by 8.3%, leading to a 7.5 percentage point decline in gross margin to 32.1% due to pricing strategies [3] Group 3: Financial Position - As of February 2025, Liu Liu Mei has only 51.04 million yuan in cash and short-term borrowings of 310 million yuan, prompting a pre-IPO buyback of 135 million yuan in shares from A-round investors [4] - The IPO is viewed as a means of survival rather than expansion, with the company needing to demonstrate a shift from a "traffic-driven" to a "product-driven" model [4] - R&D expenses in 2024 are expected to drop by 43.6%, constituting only 6.1% of sales expenses, significantly below the food industry average of 3%-5% [4]