六月效应将至？美国小盘股有望摆脱颓势

Core Viewpoint - The small-cap stocks in the U.S. are entering a historically strong performance period, raising hopes for a rebound after a poor showing in early 2025 [1] Group 1: Small-Cap Stock Performance - Small-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks 60% of the time in June since 1990, particularly when large-cap stocks are performing well [1] - The Russell 2000 index, a benchmark for small-cap stocks, has not reached new highs since 2021 and is down 5.9% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 index has experienced volatility but is up 1.5% year-to-date, close to its historical high from February [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - Despite some rebound in high-risk stocks, traders remain negative on small-cap stocks, with the ratio of call options to put options for the Russell 2000 index at its lowest since February [3] - Short positions on the iShares Russell 2000 ETF have reached their highest level since 2022, indicating significant bearish sentiment among investors [3] Group 3: Potential for Upside - Accumulation of bearish positions could create conditions for a price increase if positive news prompts investors to unwind their bets against small-cap stocks [4] - There are signs of constructive agreements between the U.S. and its trade partners, along with strong economic data, which may enhance the attractiveness of small-cap stocks [4] - The Russell 2000 index has shown positive performance in June, outperforming the S&P 500 by over 0.5 percentage points in the first three trading days [4] - Technical analysts see a potential breakout point for the Russell 2000 index around 2100, with a possible increase of 19% to 2500 points by mid-August [4]