光伏组件进入量价齐缩阶段 产业链价格短期难反弹

Core Viewpoint - The silicon material market is currently experiencing limited transaction volumes and stable prices, with expectations for future price movements largely dependent on new order signings [1][2]. Group 1: Silicon Material Prices - The average transaction price for N-type recycled silicon is 37,500 yuan/ton, N-type granular silicon is 34,500 yuan/ton, and P-type polysilicon is 31,300 yuan/ton, all remaining stable compared to the previous week [1]. - The procurement demand for silicon materials from downstream sectors remains, but the pricing pressure from buyers is strong, with offers dropping to between 32,000 yuan/ton and 34,000 yuan/ton [2]. Group 2: Production and Supply Dynamics - The current production capacity of polysilicon manufacturers is stable, with 11 companies operating at reduced loads, and the overall supply is expected to remain stable in the short term [1][3]. - By May 2025, China's polysilicon production is projected to reach 101,600 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.52% [1]. Group 3: Silicon Wafer and Battery Prices - The average transaction prices for N-type G10L, G12R, and G12 silicon wafers are 0.95 yuan/piece, 1.10 yuan/piece, and 1.30 yuan/piece, respectively, all remaining unchanged from the previous week [2]. - The average prices for battery cells, including 183N and 210RN, are stable at 0.25 yuan/W and 0.265 yuan/W, while the price for 210N cells has decreased to 0.265 yuan/W [3][4]. Group 4: Module Market Conditions - The demand for terminal components is currently weak, with major manufacturers reducing production and mid-to-small-sized manufacturers initiating cutbacks [5]. - The price range for TOPCon double-glass modules is approximately 0.60 yuan/W to 0.72 yuan/W, while HJT module prices range from 0.72 yuan/W to 0.83 yuan/W [4][5].