Shopping Centers Win In A Paucity Of Supply

Core Insights - The article posits that the value of shopping centers is expected to rise significantly due to low vacancy rates and high incremental demand for retail space [1][25][38] - Current construction costs are prohibitively high, making new developments unfeasible until rental rates increase substantially [12][24][27] Vacancy and Demand - National shopping center vacancy is at 4.1%, close to historical lows, indicating near full occupancy [3][6] - Incremental demand for retail space remains high, with strong lease signings reported at industry conferences [7][11] - Existing shopping centers are experiencing minimal vacancy, necessitating new space for additional demand [8][11] Construction Costs - The cost to build new shopping centers ranges from $300 to $500 per square foot, with an average reported cost of $394 per square foot [12][17][18] - Current net operating income (NOI) per square foot is insufficient to support these construction costs, with average rent at $20.33 per square foot [20][22] Rental Rate Dynamics - Shopping center REITs are experiencing rental rate increases of over 20% on new leases, indicating a strong upward trend in rental rates [26][27] - The estimated rental rate needed to justify new construction is around $45 per square foot, which is approximately double the current rates [26][27] Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The average shopping center REIT trades at 15.9 times the current year estimated adjusted funds from operations (AFFO), suggesting the sector is undervalued [28][30] - Shopping center REITs are trading at a significant discount to replacement costs, which are estimated between $400 and $450 per square foot [37][36] - There is strong private investor demand for shopping centers, as new construction is not viable, leading to potential acquisitions of existing properties [39]