欧盟经济面临复杂挑战

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission's Spring Economic Outlook for 2025 has downgraded growth forecasts for the EU and Eurozone due to global trade uncertainties, U.S. tariff policies, and geopolitical risks, projecting EU GDP growth at 1.1% and Eurozone growth at 0.9% for 2025 [1][2] Economic Growth Projections - The EU's GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down from 1.5% to 1.1%, while the Eurozone's growth forecast has been reduced from 1.3% to 0.9% [1] - The growth outlook for 2026 is also pessimistic, with projections of 1.5% for the EU and 1.4% for the Eurozone [1] Structural Economic Issues - Germany, as the Eurozone's economic engine, is experiencing stagnation with a projected growth rate of 0% for this year, impacting the entire Eurozone [2] - Other major economies within the Eurozone are also facing low growth expectations, with France at 0.6%, Italy at 0.7%, and Austria contracting by 0.3% [2] - In contrast, some EU member states like Malta (4.1%), Denmark (3.6%), and Ireland (3.4%) are showing stronger economic performance, highlighting regional disparities within the EU [2] Economic Policy Focus - The EU's economic policy for this year will focus on balancing monetary and fiscal policies, with the Eurozone's inflation rate expected to approach the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2% [3] - The ECB has implemented seven consecutive interest rate cuts to stimulate economic growth, with an anticipated further cut of 25 basis points in September [3] - Fiscal policy faces challenges due to strict limits set by the Stability and Growth Pact, particularly for countries like Italy and France with high deficits [3] Structural Challenges and Reforms - The EU aims to address structural challenges by enhancing competitiveness, particularly in light of Germany's manufacturing decline and high energy costs [4] - The EU's green and digital transitions require significant investment, but disparities in fiscal capacity and policy coordination among member states pose obstacles [4] - The European Commission has proposed a mid-term budget reform to focus resources on overcoming structural challenges and promoting sustainable development [4]