Core Viewpoint - The rebar steel market is experiencing a seasonal peak in demand during May, but prices continue to decline despite stable supply and demand conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of May 23, 2025, the main contract price for rebar steel closed at 3035 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.97% decrease month-on-month [1]. - The prices for "double coke" are showing a downward trend, with coking coal down 13.76% and coke down 10.24% [1][2]. - Iron ore prices, however, are on the rise, with a 1.92% increase, closing at 717 CNY/ton [1]. Group 2: Supply and Production - Domestic coal production remains stable, with April's output at 390 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [2][3]. - Coking coal inventory has increased, reaching 35.475 million tons as of May 19, 2025, up by 2.853 million tons year-on-year [2]. - The production of pig iron has seen a year-on-year growth of 0.8% from January to April 2025, indicating steady demand for "double coke" [3]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - The overall demand for coal is weak, with a 2.3% year-on-year decline in industrial thermal power generation in April [3]. - Despite the weak demand for coal, the demand for steel remains relatively stable, supported by growth in other industrial sectors [4]. - Rebar steel inventory is low, with steel mill stocks at 1.8776 million tons, down 7.4% year-on-year, and social inventory at 4.1646 million tons, down 28.3% year-on-year [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The black industry chain is expected to stabilize in June, with coal demand entering a peak season, potentially leading to a stabilization of steel prices [5]. - Low inventory levels combined with macroeconomic stimulus measures may support a rebound in rebar steel prices if infrastructure demand increases [5].
6月份钢市展望:煤价企稳有望带动钢价企稳
Zhong Guo Chan Ye Jing Ji Xin Xi Wang·2025-06-05 22:52