5月非农就业数据出炉在即 美债收益率小幅回升

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with recent employment data indicating a slowdown in job growth and an increase in unemployment claims, leading to heightened market caution ahead of the upcoming non-farm payroll report [1][2][3]. Employment Data Summary - The U.S. Department of Labor reported that initial jobless claims rose to 247,000 for the week ending May 31, exceeding market expectations of 235,000, marking the highest level in nearly eight months [1]. - The four-week moving average of initial claims increased to 235,000, while continuing claims slightly decreased but remained high, indicating prolonged reemployment times for unemployed individuals [1]. - Challenger's report indicated that U.S. employers announced 93,816 layoffs in May, a decrease from April's 105,441 but a 47% increase compared to the same month last year [2]. Job Creation and Economic Sentiment - ADP reported that the private sector added only 37,000 jobs in May, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000 and the revised 60,000 from April, representing the lowest level since March 2023 [2]. - Economic uncertainty, particularly related to trade policies, has made companies hesitant to hire, with predictions of further labor market weakness in the coming months due to the impact of tariffs [2][3]. Forecasts and Analyst Insights - Analysts predict that the upcoming non-farm payroll data will reveal the true impact of changing trade conditions on the U.S. labor market, with expectations of a decline in job growth to 130,000 from April's 177,000 [2][3]. - The consensus forecast anticipates the unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%, with average hourly earnings expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month, up from 0.2% [2].