硫酸铵：高位盘整 蓄势待发

Core Viewpoint - The domestic ammonium sulfate market has experienced high-level consolidation after reaching a peak in mid-April, with prices fluctuating around 960 yuan per ton as of early June, reflecting a month-on-month decline of approximately 5% [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The ammonium sulfate market saw two significant price increases in 2023, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 25% after a rapid rise in April [1] - As of May, the production of ammonium sulfate reached 1.26 million tons, marking a month-on-month increase of 1.6% and a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [2] - The utilization rate for coking production was 75.65%, up 2.7% month-on-month, while the utilization rate for caprolactam was 87.61%, up 0.7% month-on-month [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic compound fertilizer utilization rates fell to 38.32% in May, with expectations of further decline in June, indicating reduced domestic demand [2] - The export volume of ammonium sulfate in April was 1.2846 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 13.83%, which contributed to the price decline [2] - Anticipated increases in exports due to the upcoming traditional demand season in South America and positive market sentiment from India's urea tender could lead to a projected export volume of 1.5 million tons in June, an increase of 11.11% month-on-month [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The market is expected to stabilize and potentially rise in late June, supported by improved export expectations despite ongoing production increases and slight declines in domestic demand [3] - The overall supply is gradually recovering as maintenance at caprolactam plants concludes, while domestic urea exports may exert pressure on ammonium sulfate prices [3] - Market analysts suggest that the current phase of consolidation may be nearing its end, with potential for stabilization in June, although geopolitical uncertainties and export policy impacts remain [4]