今年氮肥行业走势趋稳

Core Viewpoint - The synthetic ammonia and nitrogen fertilizer industry in China is facing challenges in 2024, with declining product prices and reduced corporate profitability. However, the market is expected to stabilize in 2025, with prices likely to remain steady [1]. Supply Dynamics - In 2025, it is projected that new synthetic ammonia capacity will increase by 6.1 million tons per year and urea capacity by 6.6 million tons per year. If all planned capacities are realized, the total urea capacity could exceed 75 million tons by the end of 2025 [2]. - Urea production is expected to continue growing, with a daily output of 202,700 tons in May 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.96%. The operating rate is approximately 87.38%, up by 10.35 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Demand Trends - The macroeconomic outlook for 2025 indicates a GDP growth target of 5%, with actual growth in Q1 2025 at 5.4%. This is expected to drive industrial urea demand [3]. - The recovery of the real estate market is a significant demand driver, with the construction materials sector seeing increased demand due to improved confidence in the housing market [3]. - Agricultural demand for urea is projected to grow by 3% to 4% in 2025, supported by government policies aimed at enhancing food security and increasing planting areas [3]. Market Challenges - The rapid development of natural gas and electric heavy trucks poses a threat to the vehicle urea market, with significant increases in sales of new energy heavy trucks [4]. - Diesel consumption has decreased by 6.2% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating potential demand shrinkage in certain segments [4]. Raw Material Supply - The coal supply-demand structure is expected to become more relaxed in 2025, with a projected increase in coal production by 5.5 to 6 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.2% to 1.3% [5]. - The average price of anthracite coal has decreased by 19.26% year-on-year, indicating weak support for price increases in synthetic ammonia and urea [5]. Natural Gas Market - The natural gas market is also expected to remain stable, with a projected demand of 419.7 to 428.6 billion cubic meters in 2025. The supply is anticipated to be sufficient, leading to stable pricing [6]. Export Outlook - International urea supply is expected to become more relaxed, with new capacities coming online in Russia, Turkey, and Iran, totaling 2.7 million tons per year by 2025 [7]. - The domestic market is likely to see a gradual opening of urea exports, supported by a significant price differential between domestic and international markets [7]. - Overall, the nitrogen fertilizer industry is expected to experience stable market conditions in 2025, with limited volatility in prices and a gradual recovery in industry profitability [7].