【大行报告】建银国际证券：下半年成港股结构性牛市奠基期，六大核心变量引关注

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Hong Kong stocks have shown increased resilience this year, with a deeper transition from bear to bull market, characterized by a sustained rise in the market bottom and improved trading volume, establishing a preliminary virtuous cycle between the primary and secondary markets [1] - Investment logic is shifting from valuation repair to a revaluation based on new productive forces and high-quality development, leading to significant improvements in risk-return profiles and investability [1] - The second half of the year is expected to be a critical phase for establishing the structural bull market in Hong Kong stocks, with key variables focusing on six dimensions including trade negotiations, the implementation of the U.S. "Great American Rescue Plan," and the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve may restart interest rate cuts between September and December, with the August monetary policy framework review and the Jackson Hole summit likely paving the way for this move [2] - There remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding the medium-term monetary easing space, particularly concerning the interest rate path forecast for 2026 [2] - Major risk factors include uncertainties in trade negotiations, the risk of unexpected downturns in the U.S. economy, fiscal and debt risks in the U.S. and Japan, geopolitical tensions, and natural disasters [2]