Chewy's Loyalty Engine, $1B Pharmacy Business Have JPMorgan Staying Bullish Before Q1

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth maintains an Overweight rating on Chewy, Inc. with a price target of $36, anticipating positive financial results for Q1 FY25 and an upward revision of FY25 outlook [1][2] Financial Performance Expectations - Chewy is expected to report Q1 net sales guidance between $3.06 billion and $3.09 billion, with a full-year net sales outlook of $12.30 billion to $12.45 billion [1] - Adjusted EBITDA margins are projected to be between 5.4% and 5.7% for FY25, with a year-over-year increase of 59 basis points [5] Revenue Growth and Customer Dynamics - Anmuth forecasts net customer additions of 104,000 sequentially in Q1 FY25 and 421,000 year-over-year for the full year [3] - Over 80% of Chewy's sales come from Autoship customers, providing strong revenue visibility and unit economics [3] Profitability and Revenue Diversification - Chewy's profitability is supported by advertising, product mix, automation, scale, and cost control, with projected free cash flow of $524 million, reflecting a 16% year-over-year increase [5] - The company is diversifying revenue through high-margin segments such as pharmacy, which has reached $1 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis, and international expansion [2] Market Trends and Traffic Insights - Chewy's web traffic increased by 4% year-over-year in Q1, with signs of improvement noted in May, although this is a decrease from 13% growth in the previous quarter [4] - Anmuth estimates a 6% year-over-year net sales growth for Q1 and 3% for FY25, which he considers conservative [4]