Comerica Shares Up 21.2% in a Year: Is It Worth Keeping an Eye On?

Core Viewpoint - Comerica Incorporated (CMA) has shown strong performance with a 21.2% increase in shares over the past year, surpassing the industry's growth of 19.5% [1] Price Performance - CMA's stock performance indicates strong investor confidence, outperforming peers like Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) and BankUnited Inc. (BKU) [1][9] Factors Supporting CMA's Growth - Improving Operational Efficiency: The company is optimizing its cost structure by closing underutilized branches, reducing management layers, and enhancing digital tools, leading to a 3.2% year-over-year decline in non-interest expenses in Q1 2025 [3][4] - Solid Net Interest Income (NII): NII has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.8% over five years, with a 4.9% year-over-year increase in Q1 2025, driven by higher interest rates [5][6] - Stable Loan Portfolio: Total loans reached $49.9 billion as of March 31, 2025, with a five-year CAGR of nearly 1%, despite a 1.2% sequential decline due to commercial lending pressures [7] - Strong Liquidity Position: The company has a total liquidity capacity of $42.5 billion and $25.4 billion in borrowing capacity at the Federal Reserve, providing financial flexibility [10] - Impressive Capital Distribution: With a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 12.05%, the bank supports robust shareholder return programs, including a quarterly dividend of 71 cents per share and a dividend yield of 4.9% [11][12] Earnings Strength - Comerica has a strong earnings surprise history, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 12.58% [12] - Over the past three to five years, earnings per share (EPS) have grown at a CAGR of 6.37%, higher than the industry average of 4.10% [13] Earnings and Sales Estimates - Earnings Estimates: For the current year, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS is $5.11, with a projected decline of 5.2% in 2025, followed by a rise of 9.8% in 2026 [14] - Sales Estimates: The current year sales estimate stands at $3.39 billion, with a year-over-year growth estimate of 3.91% [16] Valuation Consideration - CMA's shares are considered expensive relative to the industry, trading at a forward P/E of 11.26X, above the industry average of 11.05X [19]