智通财经网·2025-06-07 23:24Core Viewpoint - The employment data for May shows resilience, supporting the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with limited changes in the probability of rate cuts in the coming months [1][5]. Employment Data Summary - According to the U.S. Labor Department, 139,000 non-farm jobs were added in May, exceeding the expected 126,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, aligning with expectations. The previous two months' data was revised down by 95,000, but April's job additions of 147,000 still slightly surpassed the market's expectation of 138,000 [2]. - The majority of job growth came from healthcare (+78,000) and leisure and hospitality (+48,000), which together accounted for 90% of the total additions, indicating that the support for the U.S. job market is primarily driven by service consumption. In contrast, manufacturing, retail trade, and government employment were among the sectors that dragged down the numbers [2]. - The unemployment rate (U3) slightly increased from 4.19% to 4.24%, with the critical long-term unemployment rate remaining unchanged. Initial jobless claims rose, but the seasonally adjusted data was comparable to previous years. Average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-over-year, surpassing the expected 3.7% [3]. - There are signs of slowing in certain aspects of the job market, such as a decline in the employment diffusion index, which fell from 56 to 54.2, and a drop in the full-time employment population ratio to 49.3% [3]. - The labor force participation rate for foreign-born individuals significantly decreased from 66.5% to 65.9%, potentially linked to the U.S. government's termination of Temporary Protection Status for Venezuelan nationals, affecting approximately 348,000 individuals [4]. Market Reaction - Overall, the May employment data reflects a degree of resilience, supporting the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate cuts. Fed Watch indicates a low probability of rate cuts in June and July, with a 51.8% chance in September, showing limited changes [5]. The U.S. stock indices rose on June 6, reflecting the resilience of employment data and a lack of further deterioration in relations between Trump and Musk [5].