越南为何放宽维持了36年的生育限制？已是老龄化速度最快的国家之一

Core Viewpoint - Vietnam has abolished its long-standing two-child policy, allowing families to decide the number of children they wish to have, reflecting a shift in demographic strategy to address declining birth rates and an aging population [1][3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The National Assembly of Vietnam has passed an amendment to the Population Law, removing the previous restriction of "one or two children per couple" [1]. - The new law allows individuals or couples to autonomously decide on the number of children based on various personal factors such as age, health, and financial capability [3]. Group 2: Demographic Trends - Vietnam's total fertility rate has been declining, projected to be 1.91 in 2024, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1 [1][3]. - The fertility rate has dropped from 2.01 in 2022 to 1.96 in 2023, indicating a continuous downward trend [3]. Group 3: Societal Impacts - In urban areas like Ho Chi Minh City, young people face increased pressure and reduced social circles, leading to a decline in marriage and childbearing intentions [4]. - The government recognizes that merely changing laws may not suffice to boost birth rates, as societal attitudes towards family size have evolved [5]. Group 4: Economic Considerations - Vietnam is experiencing a demographic dividend with a large young workforce, which is crucial for its economic growth amid global supply chain shifts [5]. - The country is one of the fastest-aging populations globally, with projections indicating that over 25% of the population will be 60 years or older by 2050 [5]. Group 5: Gender Imbalance Issues - Vietnam faces a gender imbalance, with the male-to-female birth ratio at 111.4 in 2024, above the natural level [6]. - The government has implemented strict penalties for illegal sex-selective practices, proposing to increase fines to deter such actions [6].