一财首席经济学家调研：中美经贸会谈开启，国内经济景气度回升

Economic Confidence Index - The economic confidence index for June is reported at 50.50, indicating a return above the neutral line of 50 [1][4][27] Economic Predictions for May - The average prediction for the CPI year-on-year growth in May is -0.13%, while the PPI is predicted to be -3.06% [2][10] - The predicted year-on-year growth for social retail sales in May is 4.85%, down from 5.1% in April [12] - The predicted year-on-year growth for industrial added value in May is 5.85%, lower than the previous month's 6.1% [13] - The predicted year-on-year growth for fixed asset investment in May is 3.96%, slightly lower than the previous month's 4% [14] - The predicted year-on-year growth for real estate development investment in May is -10.21% [16] - The predicted trade surplus for May is $971.38 billion, with exports expected to grow by 4.97% and imports declining by -0.61% [17] Monetary Policy and Financial Data - Economists expect the monetary policy to remain accommodative, with little change anticipated in reserve requirements and interest rates in June [21] - The average prediction for new loans in May is 9704.55 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous month's 2800 billion yuan [18] - The predicted total social financing for May is 2.34 trillion yuan, higher than the previous month's 1.16 trillion yuan [19] - The predicted M2 year-on-year growth for May is 8.08%, up from 8% in April [20] Exchange Rate and Foreign Reserves - The predicted exchange rate for the RMB against the USD at the end of June is 7.17, with an expected average of 7.13 by the end of the year [22] - The forecast for foreign exchange reserves at the end of May is $32,911.89 billion, with an expected increase to $32,917 billion by the end of the month [23] Policy Outlook - Future macroeconomic policies are expected to maintain a steady and proactive approach, focusing on structural tools to support key sectors like AI and green technology [24][26] - The government is anticipated to accelerate the implementation of existing policies and introduce new measures to stimulate consumption and investment [29][31]