Core Insights - The article highlights the investment strategies and insights of Tang Jun, a prominent fund manager at Zhongtai Securities, emphasizing his focus on macroeconomic research and multi-asset allocation [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Tang Jun has been proactive in asset allocation, notably increasing exposure to gold assets in early 2023, anticipating its value to rise by 2025 [2]. - The investment approach is based on a framework that prioritizes monetary and credit dynamics, allowing for a more nuanced understanding of economic cycles [3][4]. - The strategy involves a dual-layered approach: a long-term strategic allocation based on fundamental factors and a tactical allocation that responds to short-term market fluctuations [7][8]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The article discusses the failure of traditional economic models post-2008 financial crisis, leading to the development of a new economic cycle model called "Zhongtai Clock," which incorporates policy dimensions [2][3]. - Tang Jun emphasizes the importance of monitoring fiscal deficits as a key indicator of inflation trends in the U.S. economy [3][6]. - The current market environment is characterized by a loose domestic monetary policy and improving credit conditions, suggesting a gradual recovery [6][7]. Group 3: Asset Class Focus - Gold remains a strategic focus for Tang Jun, driven by concerns over the stability of the U.S. dollar and its long-term implications for investment [6][7]. - The A-share market is viewed as having significant potential, with a "dividend + technology" strategy being a key focus for future investments [7][8]. - The bond market is also highlighted as having long-term value, with an emphasis on the benefits of a stable liquidity environment [7][8].
破除传统周期范式 构建多元资产新配方
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2025-06-08 21:29