中金：商品需求边际放缓或仍为基准路径 部分品种面临供给侧压力

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates that the demand for domestic industrial metals may face pressure in the second half of the year due to insufficient infrastructure space, the gradual end of photovoltaic installations, and declining efficiency in demand from automotive and home appliances due to trade-in programs [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The commodity market has experienced synchronized price movements driven more by external shocks, particularly the fluctuating U.S. tariff policies, rather than intrinsic market fundamentals [2] - The recent U.S. tariff policy changes have had a significant impact on market risk appetite, comparable to the effects of the 2020 global pandemic and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict [2] Group 2: Demand and Supply Factors - The demand for industrial metals is expected to slow down marginally after the construction peak season, influenced by various factors including insufficient infrastructure space and the winding down of photovoltaic installations [3] - The U.S. has already implemented increased tariffs on steel and aluminum, while the tariff details for copper and agricultural products remain undecided, indicating ongoing uncertainty in trade policies [3] Group 3: Price Dynamics and Market Outlook - The number of commodities in a state of oversupply has increased, reflecting widespread demand-side pressures, with only the domestic aluminum market and the U.S. natural gas market expected to remain in a state of shortage [4] - The report anticipates that non-ferrous metals and energy may maintain a premium over costs, with copper and aluminum benefiting from rigid supply and green demand, while iron ore and domestic live pig prices may struggle to maintain their premiums [4] - Agricultural products that have already fallen below or near cost levels may see a narrowing of cost discounts for soybeans, while corn prices could continue to drop below cost levels [4]