【机构策略】下半年A股市场波动率或前低后高 指数有望前稳后升

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is expected to experience volatility in the second half of the year, with a potential for stabilization followed by an upward trend, contingent on macroeconomic policies and external uncertainties [1] - The uncertainties affecting the market include tariffs, geopolitical issues, technological narratives, and macroeconomic policies, which necessitate a focus on certainty in investment strategies [1] - The recommendation is to prioritize stable investments initially, with a shift towards growth opportunities once uncertainties are alleviated, emphasizing dividend sectors and high-growth areas [1] Group 2 - The "transformation bull" market in China's stock market is becoming increasingly clear, with a strategic outlook favoring 2025 [2] - Investor sentiment has shifted from concerns about economic cycles to a focus on declining discount rates, particularly the reduction in risk-free rates and systemic risk awareness [2] - The Chinese government's policies aimed at debt resolution, demand stimulation, and asset price stabilization, along with capital market reforms and emerging business opportunities, are expected to boost long-term investor confidence [2] - Recent market activity has exceeded expectations, driven by new consumption and technology trends, although further momentum is needed to sustain the rally [2] - Suggested sectors for investment include innovative pharmaceuticals, artificial intelligence, new consumption, and strong industrial demand in metals and chemicals [2]