高盛：通往2075（全球老龄化的机会）未来30年养老市场大爆发

Global Population Trends - The median age of the global population has increased significantly over the past 50 years, with developed economies rising from 30 to 43 years and emerging economies from 19 to 30 years, projected to reach 47 and 40 years respectively by 2075 [2] - The average life expectancy has steadily increased, with developed economies rising from 72 to 82 years and emerging economies from 58 to 73 years, indicating a healthier aging population [4] - The global fertility rate has declined from 5.4 in 1963 to approximately 2.1 today, which is at the replacement level, but the actual threshold to maintain population stability is lower due to increased life expectancy [6] Labor Market Dynamics - Despite a decrease in the proportion of the working-age population in developed economies, the actual employment rate has increased, indicating a rise in labor force participation [10] - The trend of delayed retirement is largely driven by individuals' choices rather than policy changes, with many older adults opting to work longer due to improved health and longevity [11] - Women's participation in the labor force has also increased, contributing positively to overall employment rates and helping to mitigate the effects of an aging population [13] Longevity Economy - The aging population presents opportunities for economic growth through technological advancements and productivity improvements, particularly in sectors catering to elderly care [16] - The rise of "silver technology" is creating new markets, including smart healthcare solutions and elder care services, which are essential as the demand for elderly care increases [16] - The perception of older adults is shifting from being seen as a burden to being recognized as valuable consumers and contributors to the economy [16] China's Aging Population - China has officially entered a moderate aging phase, with over 310 million people aged 60 and above, representing 22% of the total population, indicating significant potential for the "silver economy" [18] - The market for silver economy in China is currently valued at approximately 8 trillion yuan and is rapidly expanding, driven by policy support and changing consumer demands [18] - The Chinese government is prioritizing the development of the silver economy as a national strategy, with various initiatives aimed at enhancing the quality of life for the elderly [19] Consumer Behavior Changes - The consumption patterns of older adults in China are evolving, with a shift from basic needs to quality consumption, including healthcare, cultural activities, and travel [20] - The demand for non-medical services among the elderly is expected to exceed 60% by 2030, indicating a significant market opportunity in sectors like entertainment and education [21] - The segmentation of the elderly population into different age groups allows for more targeted products and services, enhancing the potential for growth in the silver economy [21] Policy and Industry Development - China is actively developing its silver industry as a new driver of high-quality economic growth, focusing on urban-rural integration and technological innovation [22] - The silver economy encompasses a wide range of sectors, including smart devices, healthcare services, and financial products tailored for the elderly [22] - The integration of technology in elder care services is expected to enhance service quality and efficiency, leading to the emergence of a "smart elder care" ecosystem in China [22]