日本修正后GDP萎缩收窄至0.2% 央行“观望”模式料将持续

Core Insights - Japan's economy contracted less than initially estimated in Q1, with a year-on-year GDP decline of 0.2%, better than the preliminary estimate of 0.7% [1][3] - The improvement in GDP was driven by better inventory and consumption data, with personal consumption increasing by 0.1% and corporate equipment investment rising by 1.1% [1] - Inventory changes contributed 0.6 percentage points to GDP growth, while net exports negatively impacted growth by 0.8 percentage points [1] Economic Context - The contraction in Japan's economy occurred even before the additional pressure from U.S. tariffs introduced by President Trump in April [3] - The Bank of Japan is likely to maintain a cautious stance, especially after lowering its growth forecast in the last policy meeting [3] - Bank of Japan officials are highly alert to the impacts of tariffs, with Governor Ueda warning of significant economic uncertainty and potential multi-channel effects from tariffs [3] Future Outlook - Most economists expect the Bank of Japan to delay further interest rate adjustments, with many believing that policy changes are unlikely in the coming months [3] - The next policy meeting of the Bank of Japan is scheduled for June 17 [3] - Japan is facing the impact of U.S. tariffs, including a comprehensive 10% tariff on its goods, which could rise to 24% if no trade agreement is reached by early July [3] - Specific tariffs, particularly the 25% tariff on automobiles and parts, are significantly eroding profit margins for export companies [3]