三大人民币汇率指数全线下跌，CFETS按周跌0.38

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan's exchange rate indices have all declined, reaching their lowest levels since December 2020 and July 2023, indicating a weakening trend in the yuan against other currencies [1][2]. Exchange Rate Indices - CFETS yuan exchange rate index is reported at 95.58, down 0.38 week-on-week, marking the lowest since December 2020 [1] - BIS currency basket yuan exchange rate index stands at 101.23, down 0.35 week-on-week, the lowest since July 2023 [1] - SDR currency basket yuan exchange rate index is at 90.66, down 0.27 week-on-week [1] Dollar Performance - The US dollar has experienced a weekly decline of 0.24%, closing at 99.2, influenced by tariff policies and economic data [5] - Non-US currencies have generally appreciated against the dollar, with the euro rising 0.42% to 1.13, the British pound increasing by 0.54%, and the Australian dollar up 0.95% to 0.649 [5] Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that despite strong US non-farm payroll data, the underlying trends indicate a slowing economy, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve will not adopt a more hawkish stance, which will keep the dollar under pressure [5] - Goldman Sachs predicts a new phase of dollar depreciation, with overseas investors diversifying their investments away from US assets [5][6] Future Yuan Outlook - Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley have raised their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025, suggesting that trade competitiveness will support a stronger yuan in the long term [6][7] - Deutsche Bank forecasts the yuan to appreciate to 7.0 against the dollar by the end of 2025 and further to 6.7 by the end of 2026 [8] - Goldman Sachs also anticipates a gradual rise of the yuan to 7.0 against the dollar over the next 12 months, supported by several factors including central bank interventions and improved export competitiveness [8] Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of May, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,853 billion, an increase of $36 billion from the end of April, supported by improving economic conditions [9] - The People's Bank of China reported a gold reserve of 73.83 million ounces (approximately 2,296.37 tons), marking a continuous increase for seven months [10]