智通财经网·2025-06-09 04:05Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia and Russia is rapidly increasing oil production quotas to reclaim market share lost to North American shale oil producers, but actual production increases have not yet materialized significantly, keeping Brent crude prices stable around $65-66 per barrel [1][3] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Strategy - OPEC+ announced an increase in oil production quotas by approximately 1 million barrels per day from March to June, but actual production growth remains challenging [1][3] - Despite the increase in quotas, Saudi Arabia's oil production has not shown significant improvement post-announcement [1][3] - Investment firms, including Morgan Stanley, believe this shift aims to regain market share from North American competitors and penalize OPEC+ members who consistently exceed production quotas [3] Group 2: Market Outlook and Price Predictions - Morgan Stanley forecasts that OPEC+ core members' oil supply will increase by about 420,000 barrels per day from June to September, with half of this increase expected from Saudi Arabia [3] - The firm maintains a bearish outlook on overall oil supply, predicting an increase of approximately 1.1 million barrels per day from non-OPEC+ sources, exceeding the anticipated global demand increase of 800,000 barrels per day [3] - Goldman Sachs has downgraded its oil price forecasts, predicting a supply surplus that could lead to lower peak production levels for U.S. shale oil [4][5] Group 3: Price Forecast Adjustments - Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude prices to average $60 per barrel for the remainder of 2025 and $55 per barrel in 2026, down from previous estimates [5] - The firm also predicts WTI crude prices to average $56 per barrel in 2025 and $51 per barrel in 2026, reflecting a downward revision from earlier forecasts [5]