【专家观点】加速人民币国际化：破局美元信用危机的战略窗口

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic opportunity for accelerating the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) amid the weakening credibility of the US dollar, highlighting the mismatch between China's economic strength and the current status of the RMB in global finance [1][2]. Group 1: Current State of RMB Internationalization - Despite being the world's largest trading nation and the second-largest economy, China's RMB accounts for only about 4% of global payments and 2.4% of global foreign exchange reserves [1][2]. - The share of RMB in cross-border trade settlements has increased from 18% in 2022 to 30% in the first quarter of 2024, while capital account RMB receipts have reached 73% [1][2]. - The reliance on the US dollar for overseas investments and trade exposes Chinese enterprises to significant risks, including exchange rate volatility and limited access to RMB financing [2][3]. Group 2: Structural Contradictions - There exists a contradiction between China's economic strength, which accounts for approximately 18% of the global economy, and the RMB's international share of less than 3% [4]. - The RMB's dominance in trade settlements contrasts with its weakness in capital account transactions, where the depth and liquidity remain insufficient [4][5]. - The separation of onshore market size and offshore pricing power leads to a loss of pricing authority for the RMB, necessitating a strengthening of onshore market influence [5][6]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - A five-year action plan is proposed to enhance RMB internationalization, focusing on three pillars: capital account opening, regional anchor currency development, and upgrading financial infrastructure [6][7]. - The plan includes expanding the issuance of Panda bonds and RQFII, as well as developing RMB-denominated futures to manage dollar volatility risks [6][9]. - Establishing a robust payment and clearing network to mitigate risks associated with reliance on the US dollar payment system is essential [10][11]. Group 4: Quantitative Goals and Policy Support - The article sets clear quantitative targets for RMB internationalization by 2030, including increasing the global payment share from 3.79% to over 6% and the foreign exchange reserve share from 2.4% to 5% [12][14]. - It emphasizes the need for coordinated policy support across various departments to enhance the RMB's role as a global currency [13][14]. - The successful implementation of these strategies could position the RMB as the third-largest reserve currency globally, aligning its status with China's economic power [13][14].