新研究：气候变化速度远超珊瑚礁迁移能力

Core Insights - Coral reefs are migrating to higher latitude areas at a pace that is significantly slower than the rate of climate change destruction, with many reefs potentially having a survival window of less than 80 years [1] - A global simulation model was developed by researchers from New Zealand and the United States, incorporating around 50,000 coral reef distribution points and key ecological processes such as coral growth, dispersal, evolution, and heat adaptation [1] - Even under a low greenhouse gas emission scenario, coral reef numbers are projected to decrease by one-third by the end of the century if global temperatures rise by just 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius, with recovery taking hundreds of years [1] Research Findings - The study tested three future global warming scenarios: low (approximately 2 degrees Celsius rise by 2100), medium (approximately 3 degrees Celsius rise), and high (rise exceeding 4 degrees Celsius) [1] - The research indicates that tropical corals may not be able to establish new high-latitude refuges quickly enough to save most species, with the most severe coral die-off expected in the next 50 years [1] - Examples of regions that may see new coral reefs, such as northern Florida, southern Australia, and southern Japan, are highlighted, but their formation speed is insufficient to support most tropical coral species through this century [1] Implications for Coral Ecosystems - Any level of greenhouse gas emission reduction will have a critical impact on the future of coral reefs and their dependent ecosystems [2] - There is a need to enhance governance of marine pollution and other non-climate factors to improve the ecological resilience of existing and future coral habitats [2]