Pfizer Stock Down Almost 11% YTD: Should You Buy the Dip?

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer's stock has declined 10.7% year-to-date, underperforming its industry, sector, and the S&P 500, and is trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages [1][2][9] Group 1: Sales and Revenue Trends - Sales of Pfizer's COVID-19 products, Comirnaty and Paxlovid, are projected to drop to approximately $11 billion in 2024 from $56.7 billion in 2022, with similar revenues expected in 2025 [7] - Despite declining COVID revenues, non-COVID operational revenues improved in 2024, driven by key products like Vyndaqel, Padcev, and Eliquis, as well as newly acquired products [10][24] - Oncology revenues grew 7% on an operational basis in Q1 2025, supported by drugs such as Xtandi, Lorbrena, and Padcev [13] Group 2: Challenges and Headwinds - Pfizer faces challenges from declining sales of COVID-19 products, headwinds from U.S. Medicare Part D redesign in 2025, and significant impacts from patent expirations expected between 2026-2030 [3][15][16] - The company anticipates an unfavorable impact of approximately $1 billion from the Medicare Part D redesign, particularly affecting higher-priced drugs [16] - The stock has been under pressure due to uncertainties around tariffs and the macroeconomic environment, despite pharmaceuticals being exempted from initial tariffs [4][5] Group 3: Strategic Developments - Pfizer's acquisition of Seagen has strengthened its position in oncology, with ongoing advancements in its oncology clinical pipeline [12][14] - The company is focusing on cost cuts and internal restructuring, aiming for savings of $7.7 billion by the end of 2027 [25] - Pfizer's valuation appears attractive, trading at a price/earnings ratio of 7.60, significantly lower than the industry average of 15.12 [19] Group 4: Future Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings has increased from $2.98 to $3.06 per share, indicating positive earnings momentum [22] - Pfizer's diversified portfolio, particularly in oncology, is expected to support top-line growth in 2025 and beyond [11][24] - The company offers a dividend yield of around 7.4%, appealing to income investors [25][26]