斯里兰卡一季度经济延续复苏态势

Economic Recovery and Growth - Sri Lanka's GDP growth for 2024 is projected to exceed expectations at 5%, driven by export growth, tourism rebound, and increased remittances [1] - In Q1, Sri Lanka's total export trade reached $4.21 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.87%, with significant contributions from apparel and textiles [1] - Tea exports reached 63,200 tons, generating $370 million, marking a 5% year-on-year increase and setting a new quarterly record since 2013 [1] Financial and Market Conditions - As of March, Sri Lanka's official foreign exchange reserves increased to $6.52 billion, bolstered by the IMF's approval of the fourth tranche of aid [2] - The Colombo Stock Exchange saw accelerated foreign investment, with the overall stock index rising nearly 50% in 2024, and the S&P Sri Lanka 20 Index increasing by 11.26% in Q1 [2] - Remittances reached $1.81 billion in Q1, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth [2] Tourism Sector Performance - The tourism sector showed strong recovery, with Q1 visitor numbers reaching 722,000, a 13.6% increase year-on-year, and tourism revenue hitting $1.12 billion, up 9.4% [2] Economic Risks and Challenges - Internal risks include uncertainty in economic reforms and fiscal conditions, with household income and employment levels still below pre-crisis levels, and a poverty rate exceeding 20% [3] - Inflation is expected to gradually improve, with projections indicating a rise to 4.5% by 2026, still below the central bank's target of 5% [3] - External risks include the potential impact of a 44% tariff imposed by the U.S. on Sri Lankan goods, which could severely affect exports and fiscal stability [4] International Cooperation - China-Sri Lanka cooperation is enhancing economic stability, with discussions on trade and investment expansion, and agreements on supply chain cooperation [5] - China aims to deepen trade and investment ties, focusing on green development and digital economy initiatives to foster regional prosperity [5]