美股或无惧通胀数据冲击 投资者押注关税影响“滞后且可控”

Core Viewpoint - Investors are reassessing the impact of tariffs on the market and inflation ahead of the upcoming US May Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, leading to a shift in market consensus [1] Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - Hedge fund trader Gang Hu believes that even if inflation data is poor, the stock market is likely to maintain an upward trend due to tariffs being viewed as "lagging but predictable" [1] - The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite indices had previously dropped to 52-week lows after the implementation of a 10% tariff on most imported goods, but the market has since absorbed the short-term impacts of such trade policies [1] - Hu predicts that the core CPI monthly increase may rise from 0.2% in April to over 0.4% in August, before dropping below 0.2% in November and December, and then rising again to about 0.3% by March next year [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Concerns - Despite a surge in unemployment claims and unexpected contraction in service sector activity raising concerns about economic slowdown, the US economy has not entered a recession as feared [2] - The stock market remains stable, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching new highs since February, closing at 6005.88 and 19591.24 points respectively [2] - Barclays analysts warn that "stagflation" signs are re-emerging in the data, and upcoming inflation data may clearly show price pressures from tariffs [2] Group 3: Inflation Dynamics and Future Outlook - Hu has a track record of accurate inflation predictions, having previously indicated that inflation would last longer than expected and that the Federal Reserve would maintain high interest rates until at least September 2024 [3] - Tariffs are seen as a "double-edged sword" that could either sustain inflation and keep the Fed's rates high or slow economic growth and trigger a recession, creating significant uncertainty in policy direction [3] - Economists generally expect the May CPI year-on-year rate to be 2.5%, with a core CPI month-on-month rate of 0.3%, indicating a relatively mild change compared to April [3]