日本国债风波或将平息! 日本央行前官员重磅预测：或于下财年放缓缩债步伐

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is likely to announce a significant slowdown in its government bond purchase tapering pace at the upcoming monetary policy meeting, as inflation continues to rise above the 2% target, leading to increased selling pressure on Japanese government bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Purchase Tapering - Since last summer, the Bank of Japan has reduced its monthly bond purchases by up to 400 billion yen (approximately 2.8 billion USD) each quarter [1]. - The former Bank of Japan executive suggests that the tapering pace may slow to about 200 billion yen per quarter, which is half of the current pace [2]. - The current plan aims to reduce monthly bond purchases to 2.9 trillion yen by early next year, potentially further decreasing to around 2 trillion yen a year later, which aligns with pre-2013 levels [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Expectations - The market is focused on whether the Bank of Japan will maintain its current tapering pace into the fiscal year 2026, which begins in April 2026 [1]. - If the Bank of Japan signals a slowdown in tapering, it may alleviate the ongoing concerns about a potential market crash triggered by the selling of Japanese government bonds [1]. - The market anticipates that the Bank of Japan will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% during the upcoming meeting [3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Actions - Japan's core inflation has remained at or above the 2% target for three consecutive years, indicating a strong inflationary trend [5]. - The next interest rate hike is expected to occur in the fall, contingent on external economic factors, including U.S. trade policies [3][5]. - The Bank of Japan is advised to proceed cautiously with policy normalization to avoid falling behind economic developments while managing uncertainties in the global market [5].