Group 1 - The overall market is expected to maintain volatility in the third quarter, which may provide opportunities for asset allocation as major markets have already recovered from tariff impacts [1][2] - The U.S. market is not pessimistic, with potential for outperforming; U.S. Treasury bonds present trading opportunities, and the stock market may offer buy-in chances if it corrects due to tariffs and debt issues [1][3] - The Chinese market is characterized by structural opportunities, with Hong Kong stocks expected to outperform A-shares; the market may remain volatile, providing chances to buy quality assets at lower costs [2][11] Group 2 - The credit cycle in the U.S. has shifted from expansion to contraction, with expectations of a rebalancing in the second half of the year; key factors influencing this cycle include tariffs, fiscal policy, and AI [4][5] - The U.S. credit cycle may restart, primarily driven by private sector expansion, while fiscal policy is expected to slightly contract; this scenario is favorable for U.S. assets [9][10] - In contrast, China's credit cycle is still in contraction, with high costs suppressing the willingness of the private sector to leverage; the need for improved return expectations is critical for recovery [11][12] Group 3 - The current 10% tariff rate may represent the best-case scenario for the near future, with limited impact expected if it aligns with other markets [13] - The limited fiscal stimulus and localized boosts from technology and new consumption sectors are likely to prevent a full-scale recovery in China's credit cycle, leading to a structural market environment [14] - Investors are advised to focus on stable return assets or growth-oriented assets, with Hong Kong stocks being a primary focus due to the ongoing structural allocation trend [14]
中金2025下半年展望：美股并不悲观 中国仍重结构 港股优于A股
智通财经网·2025-06-10 00:56